Why are pensions such a political flashpoint in France?

Proposed changes to France’s pension system, which have sparked huge protests and strikes since the start of the year, are facing a crucial vote in parliament on Thursday in a decisive moment for President Emmanuel Macron.

What are Macron’s proposed pension changes?

The minimum general retirement age will rise from 62 to 64, some public sector workers will lose privileges and there will be an accelerated increase in the number of years of work required to qualify for a full pension. The changes were part of Macron’s manifesto for his re-election to a second term in office in 2022.

Hasn’t Macron tried to make changes to the pension system before?

Yes. In 2019, during his first term, he put forward a different plan to unify the complex French pension system. He argued that getting rid of the 42 special regimes for sectors ranging from rail and energy workers to lawyers was crucial to keep the system financially viable. But at that time, he did not want to raise the retirement age.

Protests against those proposals lasted longer than any strike since the wildcat workers’ stoppages of 1968. Macron’s changes were eventually shelved at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Who has been protesting on the streets in recent weeks?

In a rare show of unity, all trade unions – including the moderate centre – have led protests since the start of this year, organising some of the biggest demonstrations in decades, which peaked last Tuesday when an estimated 1.28 million people hit the streets.

Transport workers, energy workers, dockers, teachers and public sector workers including museum staff have held strikes. A rubbish-collection strike is continuing and has led to more than 7,000 tonnes of waste building up across half of Paris. Trade unions say the overhaul will penalise low-income people in manual jobs who tend to start their careers early, forcing them to work longer than graduates who are less affected by the changes. Opinion polls show two-thirds of French people oppose the pension changes and support the protest movement.

Why are pensions such a political flashpoint in France?

The pension system is seen as the cornerstone of the country’s cherished model of social protection.

Unlike the market-led system of the UK, France has a pension system prized for what politicians call “solidarity between the generations” – whereby the working population pay mandatory payroll charges to fund those in retirement. All French workers get a state pension.

France has the lowest qualifying age for a state pension among the main European economies and spends a significant amount supporting the system. But the active working population pay high payroll charges and see fair pensions as the bedrock of how society should work.

Every French president for the past 40 years has in some way made changes to the retirement laws, usually amid anger in the polls and demonstrations on the streets.

Will Macron’s plans get voted through parliament?

Both houses of parliament need to approve the plans. The senate, which is dominated by conservatives who are traditionally in favour of a higher retirement age, this morning approved the changes by 193 votes to 114.

But the main challenge for the government is a knife-edge vote this afternoon in the lower house, the national assembly.

Macron has been left severely undermined in the national assembly after his centrist grouping failed to win an absolute majority in parliamentary elections last June amid significant gains for the far right and radical left.

Without a majority, the government must rely on lawmakers from the rightwing party Les Républicains to back the pension changes. The government must also hang on to support from all its centrist allies. Negotiations continued into the night and the early morning but it will ultimately be decided by only a handful of votes.

What happens if the national assembly rejects Macron’s plans?

A failure to secure enough parliament votes is seen as damaging to Macron. The government could put the bill to a second reading, which would be tricky. If the prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, fails to find a workable majority in parliament on Thursday, she could use a special power contained in article 49.3 of the constitution, enabling her to push the legislation through without a vote. But Borne is aware of the uproar and protests that could be sparked by the use of “49.3” special powers and has appeared reluctant to use them. Analysts say that forcing pension changes through in this way by decree would deprive her and Macron of democratic legitimacy, and would expose the government to a confidence vote, which it may lose.