Weather tracker: Europe’s warm January weather to continue

Following another very warm year globally, Europe is expected to record yet another month with above-average temperatures in January.

For the first couple of weeks temperatures remained considerably above average, 2-4C across western Europe, and closer to 5C for central parts. This comes after an extremely mild New Year’s Day during which temperatures were close to 20C in many parts of western Europe. Although staying above average, the spatial distribution of this temperature anomaly will shift under a new jet stream set up early this week.

A series of blocking lows over north-west Europe will push the jet stream south from Monday onwards, sitting above Spain. This will initially lead to some very windy conditions across southern Europe, with northern Spain the first area to experience disruption as overnight gusts of 50-60mph are widely expected on Monday night and into Tuesday.

These strong winds will then travel eastwards as the jet stream continues to shift, affecting parts of Italy and the Balkans later this week. Simultaneously, these strong westerly winds will push warmer air eastwards into the Balkans, Ukraine and western Russia, where temperatures will rise into the mid-to-high teens celsius by midweek. That is about 10C above the seasonal norm, further contributing to the above-average temperature anomaly in January across Europe, despite slightly cooler conditions in western Europe under the newly formed north-westerly flow this week.

Meanwhile further flooding is expected across California this week as the atmospheric river continues to pump heavy rain into the region from the Pacific. Some forecast models are predicting that by the start of the weekend a further 50-100mm of rain will be possible in places across the state, with most areas seeing at least a further 20-40mm.

This will only exacerbate the ongoing risk of flooding currently plaguing its residents. There is, however, some hope as drier conditions may set in early next week, providing some respite from the onslaught of rain over recent weeks.