UK government runs surprise budget surplus in January; cost of living crisis hits households – business live

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UK government runs surprise budget surplus in January

The UK government ran a surprise surplus of over £5bn last month, as tax receipts boosted the public finances.

Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show that the UK’s public finances were in surplus by £5.4bn in January.

That’s £7.1bn smaller than in January 2022, but is £5bn larger than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the ONS says.

That suggests the public finances are in better shape than expected, which could help chancellor Jeremy Hunt as he draws up next month’s budget. It might give Hunt more wriggle room to help struggling households.

Self-assessed income tax receipts hit a record – at £21.9bn, which is the highest January figure since monthly records began in April 1999. That’s 5.5bn more than in January 2022.

January is usually a good month for the public finances, as workers and companies settle their tax bills before the deadline at the end of the month.

But this time, economists had expected the Treasury to borrow around £8bn to balance the books, which would have been the largest budget deficit for any January in at least 25 years.

But, the ONS points out that government spending was pushed up by “substantial spending on energy support schemes and large one-off payments relating to historic customs duties owed to the EU”.

Inflation continued to drive up debt repayment costs too.

Central government debt interest payable was a record for any January, at £6.7bn – less than the previous month – lifted by higher repayment costs on index-linked gilts (government bonds whose interest rate is fixed to the RPI measure of inflation).

Key events

KPMG: Hunt set for £30bn fiscal boost - could boost public sector pay

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is “set for a £30bn fiscal boost ahead of next month’s Budget” says Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, who has analysed today’s public finances.

And that could give the chancellor firepower for a pay rise for public sector workers.

Stelmach explains that UK borrowing is undershooting the forecasts inked out by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR expected the UK to borrow £177bn this financial year (from last April to this March).

So far this year, though, the UK has borrowed £117bn, with just two months to go.

That means Hunt will have more firepower in his warchest for public spending – at a time when more workers are striking in search of a pay rise that protects them against soaring inflation.

Stelmach says:

“Public sector net borrowing was in surplus by £5.4bn in January, a big fall from the £12.5bn surplus last year as the energy support package continues to exert pressure on the public finances. However, Government spending on subsidies – which include the energy support – so far came in £6.8bn below the £44bn expected by the OBR this fiscal year, suggesting that milder weather and lower demand for gas have helped keep the cost down.

“Year-to-date borrowing has so far undershot the OBR’s forecast by £30.6bn, which could tempt the Chancellor to offer a pay increase to public sector workers as part of his Budget next month, hoping to prevent another wave of strikes.

“Looking ahead, we estimate that the Energy Price Guarantee is now likely to cost only around a half of the OBR’s £12.8bn forecast in 2023-24, thanks to lower wholesale energy prices. However, this will be largely offset by the new Energy Bills Discount Scheme for businesses with an estimated cost of £5.5bn, providing little near-term relief against a backdrop of wider spending pressures.”

Hunt: Need 'tough choices' to get debt down from 60-year highs

Overall, the UK’s national debt was almost £2.5bn in January, an increase of £143bn compared with a year earlier.

As a share of the economy, that’s 98.9% of GDP – levels last seen in the early 1960s.

UK public finances over the last 100 years

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, says this morning that ‘touch choices’ are needed to bring the debt levels down – and to lower inflation.

Hunt says:

“We are rightly spending billions now to support households and businesses with the impacts of rising prices – but with debt at the highest level since the 1960s, it is vital we stick to our plan to reduce debt over the medium-term.

“Getting debt down will require some tough choices, but it is crucial to reduce the amount spent on debt interest so we can protect our public services.”

There are two ways of bringing the debt as a share of the economy down – you either shrink the numerator (how much the UK has borrowed), or grow the demoninator (the size of the economy).

Austerity can be counter-productive to this calculation, if lower spending hits growth by lowering aggregate demand.

Hunt is aiming to halve inflation this year, including by not agreeing inflation-beating pay rises for public sector workers – a lower RPI inflation rate would push down the interest rate on gilts.

UK public finances: the key charts

This chart shows how the UK posted its first monthly budget surplus in a year in January:

While this chart shows how the UK paid £6.7bn in interest on its debt pile last month – with £3.3bn due to the impact of inflation on inflation-linked government bonds.

UK government runs surprise budget surplus in January

The UK government ran a surprise surplus of over £5bn last month, as tax receipts boosted the public finances.

Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show that the UK’s public finances were in surplus by £5.4bn in January.

That’s £7.1bn smaller than in January 2022, but is £5bn larger than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the ONS says.

Self-assessed income tax receipts hit a record – at £21.9bn, which is the highest January figure since monthly records began in April 1999. That’s 5.5bn more than in January 2022.

January is usually a good month for the public finances, as workers and companies settle their tax bills before the deadline at the end of the month.

But this time, economists had expected the Treasury to borrow around £8bn to balance the books, which would have been the largest budget deficit for any January in at least 25 years.

But, the ONS points out that government spending was pushed up by “substantial spending on energy support schemes and large one-off payments relating to historic customs duties owed to the EU”.

Inflation continued to drive up debt repayment costs too.

Energy crisis stemming from Ukraine war ‘cost £1k for every UK adult’

Alex Lawson

The UK’s over-reliance on gas has been blamed for pushing up bills as it emerged that the energy crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine had cost the equivalent of £1,000 for every adult.

A study by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimated that high wholesale gas prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago had cost UK energy suppliers an additional £50bn to 60bn, on top of the £10bn to £20bn spent in a normal year.

The invasion spurred wholesale gas prices, which were already above historical averages, to record highs.

Household energy costs are far higher than the £1,000 extra highlighted by ECIU – which does not account for normal wholesale costs, suppliers’ margins and other charges wrapped into bills.

More than half of private renters living in cold, damp or mouldy homes

Around 1.6 million UK children are living in excessively cold, damp or mouldy rented homes, a survey by Citizens Advice warns this morning.

Citizens Advice has found that more than half of private renters in England, totalling 2.7m households, are struggling with damp and draughty rented homes - and it’s affecting their health.

The problem is especially bad in the least energy efficient homes.

The charity reports that private tenants are 73% more likely to be living with damp if they live in a property with a Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of D-G rather than A-C, and 89% more likely to experience excessive cold in a D-G rated property.

Forty percent of renters felt stressed as a result of damp, mould and excessive cold, with 36% saying it made them feel anxious, Citizens Advice says.

The charity is calling for private housing landlords to be held to new standards set out after the death of Awaab Ishak, the two-year-old who was killed by mould in a social housing flat in Rochdale in 2020.

“Awaab’s law”, announced this month, will set strict, legally binding timelines on social landlords in England and Wales to tackle reported hazards.

Gillian Cooper, Head of Energy Policy at Citizens Advice, says:

“Every week we hear stories of people living in cold, damp and mouldy properties they can’t afford to heat properly.

“It’s shameful that more than 20 years since legislation came into force to reduce fuel poverty and improve the energy performance of homes, people are still suffering.

“Improving energy efficiency in privately rented homes has never been more urgent. It’s the step needed to keep people’s essential bills low, while also helping to protect their mental and physical health.”

Introduction: Quarter of UK households regularly run out of money for essentials

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Britain’s cost of living crisis means almost one one-quarter of households regularly run out of money for essentials, a group of charities are warning today.

Nationally, 37% of people end the month with no money left over, while nearly one-quarter (24%) run out of money for essentials either most months or most days, a survey for the Together Through This Crisis initiative has found.

Together Through This Crisis was set up by the charities Save the Children, Turn2us, Little Village, Shelter and 38 Degrees found.

Its survey found that nearly 40% of people end the month with no money left, while 24% run out of money for essentials either most months or most days, a survey found.

The research by the frontline charities signals the widening political risk of the cost of living crisis, our social affairs correspondent Robert Booth explains:

Macmillan Cancer Support separately warned that cancer patients were resorting to selling possessions and using loan sharks to make ends meet. In findings it described as “heartbreaking”, the charity said a third of patients had been buying or eating less food, and 22% had been spending more time in bed to stay warm, while there had been a jump in the number of calls to its helpline about financial issues.

Even among the 10 most affluent constituencies in the UK, 19% of people said they found themselves unable to pay for food or bills by the end of most months, according to the survey by Together Through This Crisis.

Matthew McGregor, the chief executive of 38 Degrees, a charity that organises campaigning petitions, said: “This polling paints a bleak picture of the crisis unfolding across the country: families running out of money to put food on the table and keep kids warm is rapidly becoming our new normal.

Together Through This Crisis has written an open letter to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt asking them to “take action to ensure the crisis illustrated by these figures does not become the UK’s new normal”.

Also coming up today

A flurry of surveys of purchasing managers across the globe will show how companies are faring this month.

We also get a healthcheck on German economic morale, and UK factories, while MPs on the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee will question business minister Kevin Holinrake on the push to get older workers back into jobs.