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Russian offensive has begun in Luhansk: ISW
Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its latest report.
The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.”
The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk has “increased markedly over the past week”, the ISW added.
Citing Russian sources, the thinktank said reports claim that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna
Earlier this week, Ukraine claimed that Russian forces were attempting to tie down Ukrainian forces with fighting in the eastern Donbas region as Moscow assembled additional troops there for an expected offensive in the coming weeks, perhaps targeting the Luhansk region.
Weeks of intense fighting have raged around the city of Bakhmut and the nearby towns of Soledar and Vuhledar.
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Significant increase in Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine, local governor says
Russian forces have significantly stepped up attacks in eastern Ukraine and are trying to break through Ukrainian defences near the town of Kreminna, a regional governor has said.
Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said Ukraine’s military were holding their ground near Kreminna, which Russian forces have held for months, but said they needed more weapons and ammunition to hold out, Reuters reports.
“I can confirm that there has been a significant increase in attacks and shelling. And it is in the direction of Kreminna that they are trying to build on their success by pushing through out defenders’ defences,” he told Ukrainian television.
“So far they have had no significant success, our defence forces are holding firmly there.”
Kreminna, which lies about 100 km (62 miles) northwest of the regional capital Luhansk, had a population of about 18,000 before Russia’s invasion on 24 February last year.
Breaking through Ukrainian lines near Kreminna would take Russian forces a step closer to the much larger city of Kramatorsk.
“(We need) heavy equipment and artillery ammunition - then we will not only be able to maintain the defence, but also make a good counter-offensive operation,” Haidai said.
More world leaders are arriving in Brussels for today’s EU summit, including Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, who was seen addressing reporters.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is set to attend the summit as the guest of honour where he will push allies to deliver fighter jets “as soon as possible” in the war against Russia.
Dan Sabbagh
A leading military aviation analyst, Justin Bronk at the Rusi thinktank, says the UK could probably spare only a handful of its oldest, Tranche 1, Typhoons amounting to around 20 to 25. Ukraine has said it needs around 200 western fighters to create a war winning air force.
The fighters were, he tweeted, “not optimised for low altitude” – flying of the type needed to evade Russian air defences, and were not well designed to operate from the simple, dispersed airfields used by Ukraine to evade detection.
As a result, the value of any gift of Typhoons would be “almost purely symbolic” but might be worth it if it helped persuade Sweden to supply Gripens as part of an international consortium.
The latest British intelligence assessment suggests that freezing weather conditions, including frozen ground, has meant there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.
These conditions are “likely to be at its worst, with extremely muddy conditions, over mid- to late-March” the UK Ministry of Defence added.
“Commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives at such times.
“However, perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022.”
Jennifer Rankin
We have a little more detail on Zelenskiy’s expected visit to Brussels later today from Jennifer Rankin, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to call on European leaders to speed up the delivery of weapons to help his country fight Russia and not put unnecessary obstacles in Ukraine’s path to EU membership, when he attends a special summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Zelenskiy is due to meet all 27 EU leaders and expected to address the European parliament in a special session where he will focus on Ukraine’s need for military equipment and campaign for speedy accession to the European Union.
My president travels to get results,” a senior Ukrainian official said on the eve of the trip. Ukraine’s European allies “need to speed up this month and next [in military deliveries] because the next two months will be critical.”
Zelenskiy is seeking long-range artillery, the delivery of promised European tanks, fighter jets and “ammunition, ammunition, ammunition” the official said, as its army is running out of Soviet-type shells and wants western equivalents to continue the war effort. “If we had all this already we could be starting a counter-offensive,” the official added.
EU insiders have described the visit as historic.
Zelenskiy has already addressed six EU summits via video link, but this will be his first trip to Brussels since Russia’s invasion nearly one year ago. He is expected to address the 27 leaders and hold numerous bilateral meetings.
These encounters will allow him to press the case for Ukraine’s speedy accession to the European Union to more sceptical leaders. Ukraine, along with Moldova and Georgia, was last June granted candidate status, having filed its application to join the EU only a few days after the Russian invasion. Western EU member states, such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, think the process of joining could take years, even decades, and fear raising false hopes among Ukraine’s population.
Zelenskiy is expected to reiterate his call for Ukraine to be allowed to start membership negotiations in 2023, a procedural step that usually takes years following the approval of candidate status. “We would not like to be the hostages of any bureaucratic procedure,” said the Ukrainian official.
Ukraine’s other priority is gaining EU support for Zelenskiy’s 10-point peace plan, which calls for the withdrawal of all Russian troops, restoration of Ukraine’s borders and a special tribunal for the prosecution of Russian war crimes.
On Thursday European leaders are also set to express support for a “peace formula summit aiming at launching [the peace’s plan’s] implementation”, according to draft summit conclusions. The document also notes: “Russia has not shown any genuine willingness regarding a fair and sustainable peace”.
The Russian embassy to Britain has warned the UK against sending fighter jets to Ukraine, after Downing Street confirmed Rishi Sunak had asked his defence secretary to investigate.
Such a move would have “military and political consequences for the European continent and the entire world”, the embassy said in a statement late on Wednesday.
We would like to remind London: in the event of such a scenario the death toll of yet another round of escalation, as well as its military-political consequences for the European continent and the whole world will be on the United Kingdom’s hands.
Russia will know how to respond to any unfriendly actions by the British side.”
Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine, Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has reportedly said.
In a response to a request for comment published on social media, Reuters cites Prigozhin as saying on Thursday:
The recruitment of prisoners by the Wagner private military company has completely stopped. We are fulfilling all our obligations to those who work for us now”.
Russian offensive has begun in Luhansk: ISW
Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its latest report.
The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.”
The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk has “increased markedly over the past week”, the ISW added.
Citing Russian sources, the thinktank said reports claim that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna
Earlier this week, Ukraine claimed that Russian forces were attempting to tie down Ukrainian forces with fighting in the eastern Donbas region as Moscow assembled additional troops there for an expected offensive in the coming weeks, perhaps targeting the Luhansk region.
Weeks of intense fighting have raged around the city of Bakhmut and the nearby towns of Soledar and Vuhledar.
Nato chief says Moscow preparing new offensive
The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is no sign of Russia preparing for peace.
During a joint press conference on Wednesday with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, Stoltenberg said:
Regrettably, we see no sign that Russia is preparing for peace.
On the contrary, Moscow is preparing for new military offensives.
So we must continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to retake territory, and prevail as a sovereign, independent nation.”
Just a quick snap here that Zelenskiy will reportedly travel to attend a European Union summit later on Thursday with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, his office has said in a statement this morning.
Macron earlier said Paris would “continue the efforts” to deliver arms to Kyiv, adding that France was determined to help Ukraine towards “victory, peace and Europe”.
“Russia cannot and must not win,” he said, adding that “the future of Europe” was at stake in Ukraine.
Zelenskiy to lobby EU leaders at Brussels summit
Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to travel to Brussels today to attend an EU summit as the guest of honour, where he will press allies to deliver more weapons and fighter jets “as soon as possible” as well as urging for a speedy start to EU membership talks.
The Ukrainian president started the surprise tour of Europe on Wednesday with visits to Britain and France, marking just his second venture abroad since the Russian invasion almost one year ago.
His attendance at the EU summit in Brussels will be “a signal of European solidarity,” said the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
Yesterday, Zelenskiy travelled to France to meet with Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. Earlier in the day he addressed parliament and met with King Charles III in London.
A senior Ukrainian official said the president would ask for more arms – especially fighter jets and longer-range missiles – and for the EU to move quickly on Ukraine’s bid to join. Alongside the leaders of France and Germany, Zelenskiy said:
“The sooner Ukraine gets long-range heavy weaponry, the sooner our pilots get planes, the sooner this Russian aggression will end and we can return to peace in Europe,” he said in Paris alongside the leaders of France and Germany.
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, will also meet Zelenskiy on the sidelines of a European Council meeting, a government source told Reuters.
Summary and welcome
Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold over the next hour.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to travel to Brussels today to lobby EU leaders for more weapons and a speedy start to joining the bloc.
“The sooner Ukraine gets long-range heavy weaponry, the sooner our pilots get planes, the sooner this Russian aggression will end and we can return to peace in Europe,” he said in Paris on Wednesday ahead of the Brussels summit.
Meanwhile, in separate discussions between Nato’s secretary general and the US secretary of state, the possibility of a renewed Russian offensive looms.
Jens Stoltenberg told reporters he saw “no sign that Russia is preparing for peace” and believes Moscow is instead “preparing for new military offensives”.
If you have just joined us, here are all the latest developments:
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has used a visit to Paris on Wednesday to urge Europe to deliver combat aircraft and heavy arms to Ukraine as soon as possible. “The sooner Ukraine gets long-range heavy weaponry, the sooner our pilots get planes, the sooner this Russian aggression will end and we can return to peace in Europe,” the Ukrainian president said as he arrived at the Élysée Palace on Wednesday. Zelenskiy met with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, urging them to be “game changers” by sending modern planes and then “the quicker this Russian aggression will end”.
Macron said Paris would “continue the efforts” to deliver arms to Kyiv, adding that France was determined to help Ukraine towards “victory, peace and Europe”. “Russia cannot and must not win,” he said, adding that “the future of Europe” was at stake in Ukraine. Scholz said it was clear that Moscow would not win, and assured Ukraine its future was in the EU, saying Ukraine was part of the “European family”. “Putin will not achieve his goals – not on the battlefield and not through a dictated peace.”
Zelenskiy also made an emotional appeal to the UK to supply Ukraine with fighter jets on a surprise visit to the UK earlier on Wednesday. “I appeal to you and the world with simple and yet most important words: combat aircrafts – for Ukraine! Wings – for freedom!” he said. Rishi Sunak, previously opposed to handing over UK jets, has ordered a defence ministry review into whether Zelenskiy’s request can be met, saying “nothing was off the table”.
Pledges of support by Sunak, the UK prime minister, included training Ukrainian pilots on advanced Nato fighter jets “to ensure Ukraine can defend its skies well into the future”. Sunak added: “The first step in being able to provide advanced aircraft is to have soldiers or aviators that are capable of using them. That is a process. It takes some time, we’ve started that process today.”
The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said there was no sign of Russia preparing for peace. “On the contrary, Moscow is preparing for new military offensives,” he said during a joint press conference with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken.
Zelenskiy is expected to travel to Brussels on Thursday, with leaders of EU countries due there for a summit. A senior Ukrainian official said the president would ask for more arms to fight Russia and for the EU to move quickly on Ukraine’s bid to join. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, would meet with Zelenskiy on the sidelines of a European Council meeting, a government source told Reuters.
English (US)