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Wagner forces sent to die in Bakhmut: ISW
The conflict between Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has likely reached a climax as thousands of fighters have died fighting in Bakhmut.
According to the Institute for Study of War (ISW) analysis, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is “currently prioritizing eliminating Wagner on the battlefields in Bakhmut” which it concludes is slowing its advance in the area.
It said the conflict began when Prigozhin ran a “relentless defamation” campaign against senior figures in the Russian military, including Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Now that the group has failed to show progress it is believed Russian MoD officials are “seizing the opportunity to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin.”
The ISW believes Russian President Vladimir Putin likely became “alarmed” by Prigozhin’s political ambitions in October last year.
Putin likely stopped the Russian MoD from directly attacking Prigozhin but instead created conditions in which the Russian military leadership could reassume more authority. Such conditions likely threatened Prigozhin, who began to intensify his criticism of the Russian MoD and further deepened the conflict between Wagner forces and military leadership.
Opening summary
Hello and welcome back to our live coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine – this is Royce Kurmelovs bringing you the latest developments.
The Institute For The Study of War (ISW) says the tense relationship between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Yevgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner group, has “likely reached its climax” as the battle for Bakhmut unfolds.
According to the ISW analysis, senior figures within the Russian Defence ministry are using the battle to churn through Wagner fighters and blunt Prigozhin’s “ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin”.
The analysis comes as the grinding fight over Bakhmut continues with Russian forces failing to advance over the weekend. Both Ukraine and Russia claimed to have killed hundreds of troops on both sides in the fighting.
In other developments:
Georgian prime minister Irakli Garibashvili has told Ukraine’s political leadership to stay out of Georgian politics. The criticism comes after Ukrainian political leaders expressed their support for protesters in Tbilisi. Garibashvili described the comments as a “direct intervention” in domestic politics and told his Ukrainian counterparts to “take care of yourself and your country, and we will take care of our country”.
Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko has arrived in Iran for an official visit to meet local leaders and discuss “trade and economic cooperation”.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement around the cit according to the Institute for Study of War.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, mayor of the Belgorod oblast in Russia, says the city’s air defence system shot down four missiles. Gladkov said one person had been injured and houses had been damaged by rocket debris. He did not say who he thought had fired the missiles but in the past he has accused Ukrainian forces on the other side of the nearby border of similar attacks.
There are reports of partisan attacks on a railway track in Russian-occupied part of Kherson region according to the Ukrainian military’s National Resistance Center. A video posted by the Atesh partisan group appears to show a railway track between the settlements of Abrikosivka and Radensk being blown up.
Anton Gerashchenko, a Ukrainian interior ministry adviser, has shared a video on his Telegram channel showing what appears to be an attack on the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk region using incendiary munitions.
Serhiy Cherevatyi, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, claimed 221 pro-Moscow troops had been killed and more than 300 wounded in Bakhmut. Russia’s defence ministry said that as many as 210 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the broader Donetsk part of the frontline.
Ukraine’s military said it repelled more than 92 Russian assaults in five areas over the past day, according to the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces.
The Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar, said he believed a deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported via the Black Sea would be extended from its 18 March deadline. Russia’s foreign ministry said Russian representatives had not yet taken part in negotiations on extending the deal.
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