Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 433 of the invasion

Russia’s military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the past five months in fighting against Ukraine, mostly in the Bakhmut region, the White House has estimated. National security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on US intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner group.

Russia unleashed a fresh missile attack on Ukraine in the east, killing two people, setting off huge blazes and damaging dozens of homes and other buildings in the city of Pavlohrad. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the two deaths in his video address on Monday night. “Forty other people - women, children, men – were treated for wounds and injuries,” he said. Zelenskiy also said a 14-year-boy was killed near his school when it was hit by a bomb in the Chernihiv region, close to the Russian border.

An explosion in the western region of Bryansk bordering Ukraine derailed a Russian freight train on Monday, the local governor said in a social media post. “An unidentified explosive device went off, as a result of which a locomotive of a freight train derailed,” Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties reported. Russian authorities say the region, which borders Ukraine and Belarus, has seen multiple attacks by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups in the 14 months since Russia invaded.

Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains “quite difficult”, a top Ukrainian general has said. However, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces, added: “At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions.” Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.

The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russia’s defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize Bakhmut. Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscow’s defence establishment over the conduct of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.

Since last summer Russia has built “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update.

Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former children’s ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is “within the framework of international law”, with specific reference to Poland’s ambassador. Poland called on Russia “to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention”.

In Washington, House speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, criticising Russia’s “killing of the children” and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to repel the Russian invasion.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealand’s prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraine’s president said the pair discussed “further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues” and “the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.”