Rishi Sunak unveils £5bn extra defence spending ahead of US Aukus summit – UK politics live

1 year ago 44

Russia and China will be 'breathing sigh of relief' because £5bn extra for MoD not enough, says Tory defence committee chair

Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons defence committee, told Sky News this morning that the extra £5bn for defence announced by Rishi Sunak was not enough. Pointing out that Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, was lobbying for twice that sum, Ellwood said that extra £5bn, although welcome, would not reverse the cuts to defence spending in the last defence review.

He also claimed that countries like Russia and China would be “breathing a sigh of relief”. He said:

The next couple of years are going to get very, very dangerous indeed. This year particularly, 2023, will be critical for Ukraine.

Britain has done brilliantly in stepping forward, pushing the envelope, because we have become rather risk averse, too timid, in dealing with aggressive nations such as Russia and China.

But we can only do that with the hard power. And I think Russia and China will be breathing a sigh of relief that we have not invested further in our armed forces at this time.

We are at the foothills of another cold war. Globalisation in its current form is actually dying. And it’s countries like Britain that usually step forward and other nations follow. We can only do that if we invest further in our defence.

Key events

David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, says the original integrated review had some serious shortcomings. He says it did not see the risk of the Taliban taking over Kabul, and it did not anticipate the invasion of Ukraine. He says it did not even mention Taiwan.

He says it said almost nothing about the EU.

And he says the rhetoric in the document, on topics like the fight against kleptocracy and the impotance of international law, contrasted poorly with what the government was doing.

Cleverly is now setting out highlights from the review that were briefed overnight.

Cleverly says the updated review sets out how the government will respond to China. He says the government “cannot be blind to the increasingly aggressive military and economic behaviour of the Chinese Communist party, including stoking tensions across the Taiwan Strait and attempts to strong-arm partners”.

Cleverly claims UK now 'walks taller' in world than it has done for many years

Cleverly starts by saying the integrated review published two years ago set out how the UK would thrive in a more complicated age.

It showed how the government would use “the combined might of every part of government to ensure that our country remains safe, prosperous and influential into the 2030s”, he says.

He says the approach was right. He goes on:

On every continent of the world, the United Kingdom walks taller today than it has done for many years.

This provokes some laughter.

James Cleverly's statement to MPs about updated integrated defence and security review

James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is now making his statement to MPs about the updated integrated defence and security review.

Deltapoll has polling out today giving Labour a 23-point lead over the Conservatives – up seven points on the previous week.

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is twenty-three points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 27% (-4)
Lab 50% (+3)
Lib Dem 9% (+1)
Other 15% (+1)
Fieldwork: 10th - 13th March 2023
Sample: 1,561 GB adults
(Changes from 2nd - 6th March 2023) pic.twitter.com/3RgtjJ6tIc

— Deltapoll (@DeltapollUK) March 13, 2023

James Johnson, a pollster who used to work for Theresa May, has highlighted these figures showing Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings going up in recent weeks, particularly among people who voted Tory in 2019.

The @DeltapollUK tracker is one of the best out there.

Rishi Sunak net approval over the last month, all voters:

Feb 20th: -19
Feb 27th: -16
Mar 6th: -5
Mar 13th: -11

Amongst Con 2019 voters:

Feb 20th: +19
Feb 27th: +23
Mar 6th: +23
Mar 13th: +32https://t.co/slysv6Zes4

— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) March 13, 2023

Humza Yousaf and Kate Forbes say they don't agree with MSP's call to move 'down a gear' on independence

Humza Yousaf has said he would shift the campaign for independence into “fifth gear” if he wins the SNP leadership, following a suggestion from a colleague that it should “go down a gear”, PA Media reports.

Ben Macpherson, the minister for social security in the Scottish government, said it would take longer than the short or medium term for Scotland to become a successful independent country. Writing in Scotland on Sunday yesterday, Macpherson said:

Any reckless, overly disruptive path to statehood would quickly make our quality of life in Scotland poorer. Better to go down a gear and take the journey at a reasonably safe speed than crash trying to rush things.

Today, on a visit to Stirling, Yousaf, the health secretary in the Scottish government and one of the three SNP leadership candidates, said he disagreed. Asked about Macpherson’s comment, he replied:

I have the opposite view, I think we should be ramping up, not ramping down activity.

If I was the first minister I’d put us into fifth gear – let alone take it down a gear.

There’s a number of prospectus papers I would commit to publishing around the case for independence as soon as I become first minister.

But also, on day one, we’ve got to kick start the Yes movement.

Humza Yousaf in Stirling today.
Humza Yousaf in Stirling today. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Kate Forbes, the finance secretary and Yousaf’s main rival, also said she disagreed with Macpherson suggestion that independence should be made less of an immediate goal, and more of a long term one. She said:

I would fundamentally disagree [with Macpherson]. I think we have learned lessons of how not to do it from Brexit, but I think you can be far more effective in laying the groundwork from the very beginning.

I think the nature of the transition is that it’s gradual, but I would distance myself from the assumption that it would take decades, or indeed many, many years.

Yousaf and Forbes, who are the two frontrunners in the contest, have both been accused of favouring a more gradual approach to independence than Nicola Sturgeon. Ash Regan, the former community safety minister who is the third candidate in the contest, appears to prioritise independence more than her rivals. She has said she thinks Scotland could get independence without a referendum if enough voters back pro-independence parties.

Kate Forbes on a visit to the Empower Women for Change organisation in Glasgow today.
Kate Forbes on a visit to the Empower Women for Change organisation in Glasgow today. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, has expressed concern about the illegal migration bill. In an interview with BBC News he said that, if called to speak in the debate this afternoon, he would ask how someone, from Somalia, for example, could legitimately claim asylum in the UK without having to cross the Channel in a small boat. “When we have [the answer to] that, then we do have a solution,” he said, implying that in its current state the bill was flawed.

Former Tory minister Chris Skidmore says he won't vote for illegal migration bill out of respect for international law

Chris Skidmore, the Conservative former minister who did a net zero review for the government and who is standing down at the next election, has said he will not vote for the illegal migration bill tonight.

I am not prepared to break international law or the human rights conventions that the UK has had a proud history of playing a leading role in establishing.

I will not be voting for the bill tonight.

— Chris Skidmore (@CSkidmoreUK) March 13, 2023

Caroline Nokes, another former Tory minister, has also said she will not vote for the bill. She said the proposals filled her with “absolute horror”.

Two MPs abstaining does not constitute a significant rebellion. But what Nokes and Skidmore have shown is that the bill does not have universal support on the government backbenches. As Michael Savage and Toby Helm reported in the Observer yesterday, “a potential Tory rebellion [is] already brewing over the proposals”. There are even reports that Priti Patel, the former home secretary, may speak out against parts of the bill.

Raising defence spending makes cuts in other areas of spending, or tax rises, more likely, says IFS thinktank

These are from Ben Zaranko, an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has posted a thread on Twitter about the significance of Rishi Sunak saying he wants to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP “in the longer term”. It starts here.

The PM has announced an extra £5 billion for the defence budget over the next two years and, in the longer term, "an ambition to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP".

The second of these is quite a big deal, with some major fiscal consequences 🧵https://t.co/ZKtFGXj7D4

— Ben Zaranko (@BenZaranko) March 13, 2023

And here are some of the points he is making.

For decades, the ‘peace dividend’ from lower defence spending has allowed us to spend more on the NHS without having to increase the size of the state.

This chart shows that heath and defence budgets have, in effect, traded places. pic.twitter.com/EgXsw2sHPx

— Ben Zaranko (@BenZaranko) March 13, 2023

Why is today's announcement a big deal?

Because this decade, for the first time in a long time, we might be in a world where the government feels the need to sharply increase health and defence budgets *at the same time*.

— Ben Zaranko (@BenZaranko) March 13, 2023

To sum up, a world in which we're increasing health and defence spending at the same time is a world where we have to either:

1) make some big cuts to other public services and/or the scope of the state

2) raise taxes

A big fiscal challenge for whoever wins the next election.

— Ben Zaranko (@BenZaranko) March 13, 2023

And this is from Paul Johnson, the director of the IFS (and Zaranko’s boss).

This really is a big deal. Increasing spending on defence as % of national income would reverse 70 years of decline which has helped fund the growth of the welfare state.

Increasing defence spending as population ages and while pressure on health spending is so high will be hard https://t.co/MtxiwpE4tL

— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) March 13, 2023

Rees-Mogg says he's 'not fussed' what Lineker said, but claims row strengthens case for abolition of licence fee

Many Tories were furious with Gary Lineker for comparing the language used by the government to discuss migrants with what was said in Nazi Germany. More than 30 MPs and peers reportedly signed a letter saying Lineker should apologise “at the very least”. It was organised by the Common Sense group, a rightwing Tory caucus particularly hostile to liberalism.

But not all rightwingers think the same way. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, is more libertarian than his Common Sense colleagues and he told GB News this morning that he was “not fussed” about Lineker criticising the govenrment. Rees-Mogg, who also presents a show on the station, said:

I think those of us broadly on the right have to be very, very careful about attacking people for freedom of speech, so I’m not fussed about what he says.

But Rees-Mogg did argue that the row strengthened the case for the abolition of the BBC licence fee. He said:

[Lineker] can say what he likes. The issue is that the BBC is the state broadcaster and that it’s funded by a tax on televisions. If it weren’t, then we wouldn’t need to worry about its impartiality.

Actually, if we change the funding mechanism of the BBC, we could have a much freer media, as they do in the United States, where people are allowed to say what they think.

I think that would be much better rather than this pretence that the BBC is impartial, which it isn’t, and then having rows about particular presenters.

Asked about the licence fee at the morning lobby briefing, the No 10 spokesperson said:

We remain committed to the licence fee for the rest of the current charter. But we’ve been clear that the BBC’s funding model faces major challenges due to changes in the way people consume media.

And it’s necessary to look at ways to ensure long-term sustainability.

The BBC’s current charter runs out in 2027.

No 10 says it is 'pleased' BBC's dispute with Gary Lineker has been resolved

At the No 10 lobby briefing the spokesperson said the government was glad that the BBC’s dispute with Gary Lineker had been resolved. He said:

We’re pleased that this situation has been resolved and that fans will be able to watch Match of the Day as normal this weekend.

The spokesperson repeated the line used previously about Rishi Sunak being “disappointed” by the language used by Lineker in relation to the government’s small boats policy, and the rhetoric used by ministers, but the spokesperson declined to say Lineker should apologise.

The spokesperson also declined to offer full backing to Richard Sharp, the BBC chair (and Sunak’s former boss at Goldman Sachs). No 10 is still waiting for the outcome of the review into the appointment process being carried out by the Office of the Commissioner for Public Appointments, the spokesperson said.

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