Rees-Mogg says Sunak’s handling of Northern Ireland protocol talks ‘very similar to May’ – UK politics live

Key events

Here is my colleague Libby Brooks’ story about Kate Forbes losing support in the SNP leadership contest because of her personal opposition to same-sex marriage.

In an article for the New Statesman, Chris Deerin, its Scotland editor, says that although Forbes’ campaign has been badly damaged, it might not be terminal. Here is an extract.

Is the Forbes campaign really over before it has begun? Perhaps. But there are several weeks to go and her faith, which admittedly seems unusually deep and ideological, is arguably her only real political weak spot. Soon those awkward questions will exhaust themselves and the debate will move on to other territory.

At some point the candidates will have to talk about economics and public service reform. They will have to address how they would fix Scotland’s increasingly tatty, shuttered cities and towns, and provide a vision of the future that amounts to more than just relentlessly haranguing the population about breaking up the UK. Who will be more convincing on the stuff that matters most to the vast swathe of Scots voters? Does the SNP membership care, or has it swallowed too much of the progressive moon juice? Is it too used to following orders from the higher-ups?

If the Forbes campaign is to survive, she needs to make it to the end of this week relatively intact, then enter next week having changed the conversation. Perhaps this is doable, perhaps it isn’t. But [Humza] Yousaf also has questions to answer. As Forbes’s treasured Bible says, let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us.

Helena Horton

Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union addressed the annual farming conference in Birmingham this morning with a grave tone. Pointing out that farmers across the country are going out of business, with the fastest reductions in some sectors such as salad since records began, she said that farmers are facing a huge squeeze and lack of support from government.

She said the Conservatives were “running out of time to walk the walk” and that food security was under severe threat as farmers face rising input costs, inflation, avian influenza and the climate crisis.

So to see Rishi Sunak’s beaming face displayed to the conference as it broadcast a video message from him that had been recorded earlier a felt slightly incongruous.

Striking a cheerful tone, he delivered a policy-free speech full of platitudes. He said:

As a member of parliament for a farming constituency. I’ve worked with farmers and the NFU for years. I’ve even rolled up my sleeves and done the early morning milking at Wensleydale.

Now I know how important your work is. And I know that it’s more than just work. It’s a way of life that is passed down through the generations.

So as prime minister, I want to make sure that you know that I am standing up for you, and that I will work day in and day out to ensure that you can continue to play your vital role in our country and our economy for many years to come.

Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, is taking questions in the Commons at 11.30am. After that there are three urgent questions: an environment minister replying to Caroline Nokes about whether “water companies are performing adequately”; a levelling up minister replying to Helen Morgan on the rollout of voter ID (which is going very badly, my colleague Peter Walker reports); and a Foreign Office minister replying to Jim Shannon on the Indian government raids of BBC offices in Delhi and Mumbai.

The three UQs will be followed by a statement from Chris Philp, the crime and policing minister, on the Plymouth shootings.

Teachers, nurses and other health workers on strike in Northern Ireland

Thousands of teachers, nurses and other health care workers are striking in Northern Ireland for better pay and conditions

Unions coordinated a day of action on Tuesday which is to include joint rallies in Belfast, Omagh, Derry, Ballymena, Newry, Bangor and Coleraine.

It is the first strike by the four main teaching unions in six years. Schools are shut until midday, when teachers are to return to class.

The protest marked a continuation of industrial action by health sector workers. Unite said 4,000 of its members would participate. “With chronic low pay making it impossible to recruit and retain essential health workers, the health service in Northern Ireland is facing an existential crisis,” said Sharon Graham, the union’s general secretary.

The region currently has no education or health minister – or any minister – to respond to the demands. A Democratic Unionist party boycott of power-sharing to protest the Northern Ireland protocol has left Stormont’s executive and assembly defunct.

Cabinet is over. Here are pictures of some of the ministers leaving No 10 after the meeting finished.

Suella Braverman, the home secretary, leaving No 10 after cabinet. Photograph: Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images

Steve Barclay, the health secretary, leaving No 10. Photograph: Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images

Dominic Raab, the justice secretary and deputy PM, leaving No 10. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, leaving No 10. Photograph: Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images

Penny Mordaunt, leader of the Commons (left), and Lucy Frazer, culture secretary, leaving No 10. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Kate Forbes rejects claims her campaign for SNP leadership has been fatally damaged by her opposition to same-sex marriage

Around this time yesterday, Kate Forbes, the Scottish finance secretary, entered the race to be SNP leader and next first minister. This morning it seems quite possible that her campaign is already in effect over, leaving Humza Yousaf, the Scottish health secretary, as the runaway favourite to win.

This is from James Cook, the BBC’s Scotland editor.

Forbes’s problem is that she belongs to the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland and she gave interviews yesterday saying that she would not challenge the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition reform bill, did not support self-identification for trans people and would not have voted for same-sex marriage. She said that she recognised that equal marriage was a legal right and that she wanted to live in a “pluralistic and tolerant society”, but also that she regarded equal marriage as a conscience issue, on which MPs should be entitled to vote according to their personal views.

My colleague Libby Brooks has the detail here.

This morning three SNP MSPs who had been backing Forbes said that, in the light of her comments, they could no longer support her.

This is from Clare Haughey, the minister for children.

This is from Tom Arthur, the public finance minister.

And this is from Gillian Martin, the health committee convener.

This morning, in an interview with the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, Forbes rejected claims that her campaign was fatally damaged. Asked if it was over for her, she replied:

Absolutely not. We have a large party membership, most of whom are not on Twitter.

I understand people have very strong views on these matters. I think the public are longing for politicians to answer straight questions with straight answers and that’s certainly what I’ve tried to do in the media yesterday. That doesn’t necessarily allow for much nuance.

My position on these matters is that I will defend to the hilt everybody’s rights in a pluralistic and tolerant society, to live and to love free of harassment and fear.

Yousaf supports equal marriage and Holyrood’s gender recognition reform bill, and he has said he would challenge the UK’s government’s decision to block it. Ash Regan, the third candidate in the contest, resigned from her post as community safety minister because she could not support the GRR bill.

Hunt faces calls for bigger public sector pay rises after surprise budget surplus

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is facing calls to offer a bigger pay rise to public sector workers to break months of strike deadlock, after official figures showed stronger than expected government finances, my colleagues Richard Partington and Julia Kollewe report.

Rees-Mogg attacks Sunak's handling of NI protocol talks, saying it's 'very similar to Theresa May'

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary and a former chair of the European Research Group, which represents hardline pro-Brexit Tory MPs, has used his “Moggcast” podcast to criticise Rishi Sunak’s handling of the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations.

• Rees-Mogg accused Sunak of being like Theresa May (not a compliment in Tory Brexit circles). Referring to the way No 10 has handled the talks with the EU on rewriting the protocol, with Tory MPs being kept in the dark, he said:

It’s quite surprising, because this is very similar to what happened with Theresa May.

So a story would appear in the Times and Downing Street would say: ‘No, this isn’t quite right, it isn’t at all right’.

And then a week or two would go by and it would turn out to be completely right and they would hope that people would just conveniently fall in behind the announced policy.

And life doesn’t work like that. It’s important to get support for it first before you finalise the details and that doesn’t seem to have been done here.

• He said there would be no point having a deal that was unacceptable to the DUP – implying that No 10 was at fault for not accepting this. He said:

There seems to me to be no point in agreeing a deal that does not restore power-sharing.

That must be the objective. If it doesn’t achieve that objective, I don’t understand why the government is spending political capital on something that won’t ultimately succeed.

Sunak definitely wants the DUP to back the deal because he wants power-sharing restored in Northern Ireland, and that won’t happen until the DUP lifts its protocol-inspired boycott of the institutions. But it has been reported that Sunak would be willing to strike a deal without DUP support if he thought it was in the interests of Northern Ireland as a whole. And, while Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, said at the weekend that any deal would have to pass the DUP’s seven tests, No 10 is not taking this line in public.

As Raoul Ruparel, an adviser to May when she was PM, pointed out on Twitter yesterday, in 2019 Rees-Mogg also argued that any Brexit deal would have to be acceptable to the DUP – before he backed the Boris Johnson deal opposed by the DUP because it created a GB/NI customs border in the Irish Sea.

• Rees-Mogg defended the Northern Ireland protocol bill, which No 10 seems happy to shelve, saying it has the support of “the person who had a mandate from the British voters” – ie, Boris Johnson. The bill would allow the UK government to unilaterally abandon parts of the current protocol (even though some lawyers say this would be against international law).

The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves has posted a link to the podcast on Twitter.

UK posts surprise budget surplus for January after bumper income tax haul

The UK government ran a surprise £5.4bn surplus in January, after bumper self-assessment income tax receipts, leaving some rooms for giveaways in the chancellor’s budget next month, according to some economists. My colleague Julia Kollewe has the story here.

Downing Street believes that Rishi Sunak will not technically need to put his deal with the EU for changes to the Northern Ireland protocol to a vote in the Commons, and yesterday No 10 refused to commit to holding one (even though at least one senior Tory said it would be wise to hold a vote anyway).

But, according to Adam Forrest at the Independent, Tory Brexiters are saying that, if Sunak does not schedule a vote, they will force one themselves. He writes:

One Tory Brexiteer, a member of the European Research Group (ERG), told The Independent that backbench rebels could stage a vote of their own if Mr Sunak were to refuse one and enforce a protocol deal without DUP backing.

Another ERG source added: “We absolutely need a vote in Commons when we know what is agreed – it’s right for parliament to have a say in a matter as important as this one. There will be concern shown by MPs if we did not get a vote. There are all sorts of ways a vote can be arranged.”

Minister plays down reports colleagues could resign over Sunak’s Northern Ireland protocol deal

Good morning. Rishi Sunak is still trying to close a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. A few days ago reporters were briefed that he would be unveiling it at cabinet today, but there has been a hold-up because he is still trying to secure the support of Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group and the DUP. The story is stuck in a “not much happening in public” phase.

But that does mean there is no crisis or tension. This is the hardest political problem Sunak has had to face as PM and three outcomes are possible. 1) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal rejected by the DUP, triggering a large revolt by Tory Brexiters. 2) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal, but the DUP is supportive, or at least not too critical, and any Tory revolt is relatively limited. 3) Sunak abandons trying to get a deal for now, and carries on with a status quo. Option 2) would be a small triumph; Sunak would have achieved something that eluded Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. But option 1) would be a disaster for his leadership, and option 3) would amount to a failure too.

Although there is not much happening on the surface, today the Times has splashed on claims that some ministers could resign over the deal proposed by Sunak. In their story Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Bruno Waterfield report:

Another minister told The Times that ministers would quit if the government tried to force through a deal that undermined Northern Ireland’s sovereignty by leaving the province beholden to existing and future EU single market rules.

“The naivety is astonishing,” the minister said. “The strategy hasn’t worked. People won’t allow something that doesn’t ensure sovereignty. Ministers will resign. I couldn’t look myself in the eye and vote through something I thought would undermine sovereignty in Northern Ireland.”

Yesterday, as my colleagues Jessica Elgot, Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey report in our overnight story, Suella Braverman, the home secretary, went public with a strong hint about her reservations over Sunak’s strategy. Braverman is also thought to be concerned that Sunak’s forthcoming asylum bill might not be as draconian as she wants, and No 10 must be keeping an eye on her intentions.

Maria Caulfield, the health minister, was doing an interview round this morning. She played down reports that colleagues were on the brink of resignation, and urged people to wait until the deal was finalised. She told Times Radio:

I think we need to support the prime minister.

There isn’t a deal done yet so all these rumours about ministers or MPs not being happy, I haven’t seen the details, we have to give the prime minister that time and space to get these negotiations done. We need to give him the time and space to thrash out the final elements of any final deal.

We may – or may not – get significant developments on this today. There are also significant developments in the SNP leadership contest, where Kate Forbes’s campaign is in trouble, and Keir Starmer is giving a speech to the NFU.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.

10.40am: Mark Spencer, the farming minister, gives a speech to the NFU conference. There will also be a short video address from Sunak.

11.15am: Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and other health officials give evidence to the Commons health committee about prevention in health and social care.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

2pm: Keir Starmer speaks to the NFU conference.

3pm: Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee.

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