Potter puzzle: Arteta shows virtues of patience but how long do Chelsea wait?

Mikel Arteta is the new Sir Alex Ferguson. In previous eras Ferguson’s early struggles at Manchester United would be cited when people called for a club not to sack a struggling manager. But the argument has moved on. These days it feels more relevant to point to Arsenal’s backing of Arteta, who did not look like a revolutionary figure when at risk of losing his job in December 2020.

It is a reminder that there are rarely certainties in football. We can praise Arsenal, who are closing in on a first Premier League title since 2004, for having the courage to stick by their man. But we can also acknowledge that there would have been little uproar if they had lost their nerve with Arteta and, much as Chelsea are trying to give Graham Potter time to grow into his role, there comes a point when clubs must accept the glorious future they are waiting for is taking too long to arrive.

That is the awkward decision facing Chelsea before they host Leeds on Saturday and attempt to salvage their Champions League tie against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday. Results are atrocious at the moment and there is an increased sense a change may be necessary if both games are lost. If Chelsea continue to back Potter, will their patience be rewarded? Is this a repeat of David Moyes at United? Or is Potter, who has always improved teams over time, an Arteta in waiting?

Chelsea’s owners, Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, want to find out. They admire how Arsenal treated Arteta and it is easy to see where Potter was coming from after his side’s 2-0 defeat to Tottenham last Sunday. The argument made sense at first glance. Potter drew parallels with Amazon’s All or Nothing documentary on Arsenal, pointing out that everyone thought Arteta was a “disaster” two years ago, and he also brought Jürgen Klopp into the mix, claiming that some people want the German fired because of Liverpool’s difficulties this season.

Graham Potter: the new Mikel Arteta or Chelsea’s version of David Moyes? Photograph: Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC/Getty Images

Something to ponder, then, if Chelsea lose to Leeds and Dortmund. But there is a problem. Potter even admitted as much, acknowledging he has little credit in the bank. He has five league wins since replacing Thomas Tuchel in September. Chelsea, 10th despite spending more than £500m since last summer, have scored four goals in 2023, are out of both domestic cups and are unlikely to have European football next season.

Good luck putting a positive spin on that. Potter has spoken about a “suboptimal” pre-season before his arrival, which is true. He has cited injuries, the World Cup interrupting his training schedule and a host of young signings needing time to settle. The owners have given Potter a huge, bloated squad and he is having to make difficult selection decisions every week. It all makes sense. But it does not mean that Chelsea should be quite so bland and directionless on the pitch.

Here is where the comparisons with Arteta and Klopp fall down. Arsenal were 10th when they replaced Unai Emery with Arteta in December 2019. They had less talent than Potter’s Chelsea and did not go on a spending spree. But after a few weeks it was possible to see where Arteta wanted to go. Arsenal were developing a style. They beat United and Liverpool in the league, knocked Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City out of the FA Cup and ended Arteta’s first campaign by defeating Chelsea in the final.

There was tangible progress. Similarly Klopp made an instant impact after replacing Brendan Rodgers at Liverpool in October 2015. The German inherited an average squad but his first season featured wins at Chelsea and City, a comeback against Dortmund and a run to the Europa League final. Potter, who cannot point to any previous achievements at the highest level as a player or manager, is yet to exude the same authority. The fans can see it and are on his back.

Todd Boehly has backed Graham Potter in the transfer market, including breaking the British transfer record to sign Enzo Fernández. Photograph: Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC/Getty Images

Potter was an intriguing fit for Chelsea. Roman Abramovich never would have taken the 47-year-old from Brighton but Boehly and Clearlake were attracted by his coaching acumen, calmness and ability to work in a collegiate manner. Although Potter has not lost the players, the owners have became aware it would not be easy to maintain their support of him if there is no improvement in results and performances in the next two games.

But the fans want to see more charisma from Potter, who could be in trouble if he loses to Leeds and Dortmund, and evidence of a plan on the pitch. Leaving aside the victories over a wounded Milan in the Champions League, Chelsea have not won a difficult game since sacking Tuchel. They have been sterile in attack, lack identity and have chopped and changed too much. Kalidou Koulibaly was out, then in, then hooked at half-time, then back again. David Datro Fofana started the 1-0 defeat to Southampton, came off at half-time and was not on the bench against Tottenham. Hakim Ziyech was an email away from joining Paris-Saint Germain on deadline day but is now deemed important enough to start against Spurs.

There needs to be more consistency. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was discarded even though Chelsea cannot score, and was not on the bench for three league games. Then he returned against Spurs and came on once Chelsea had gone 2-0 down.

The relationship between Mikel Arteta and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang deteriorated and he was sold to Barcelona in 2022. Chelsea signed him six months later. Photograph: Nick Potts/PA

Aubameyang’s story brings it back to Arteta. One of the main themes in All or Nothing was Arteta deciding that Aubameyang was a negative influence on Arsenal’s youngsters and forcing the striker out. That should have occurred to Chelsea when they signed him from Barcelona. Instead they reunited the 33-year-old with Tuchel, who was sacked less than a week later.

Confused? It is no wonder that Potter has seemed a little startled during his public appearances. Even so, his suggestion that this is the hardest job in football is wide of the mark. There are challenges but plenty of managers would love to have Thiago Silva, Reece James, Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Mateo Kovacic and João Félix. His bench brims with options and the idea that the season can just be written off as a practice run does not convince. Chelsea have spent too much to be below Fulham, Brighton and Brentford.

Potter, who has had 26 games already, has to offer more. He needs to trim his squad but also needs to energise his side against lowly Leeds. It is all well and good talking about processes and organic growth. Yet Chelsea have just broken the British transfer record on Enzo Fernández and nobody who goes to Stamford Bridge on a regular basis has seen any evidence to suggest that Potter is getting the best out of this group of players.

The question is how long Chelsea are prepared to wait. A second sacking in less than a year would be embarrassing and the club are still behind Potter. Yet no two situations are the same. It never was possible for every manager to be given as much time as Ferguson. There comes a point when the doubts become overwhelming and, unless Chelsea see a dramatic improvement in results and performances soon, it will be impossible for them not to accept that Potter does not belong in the same company as Klopp and Arteta.