First lady signals Joe Biden will seek second presidential term – live

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Last weekend, Joe Biden clandestinely traveled to Ukraine via a mode of travel he personally prefers, but which is unusual for a modern American president: a passenger train. The Guardian’s Peter Beaumont spoke to the man who made it happen:

Alexander Kamyshin, the head of Ukraine’s railway company Ukrzaliznytsia, doesn’t get much sleep at the best of times. On Sunday night, as Joe Biden was being ferried into Ukraine in a 10-hour night journey from Poland – in a carriage now known as “Rail Force One”, he got almost none.

Along with others involved in the secret operation to bring the US president to his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kamyshin watched the progress of the train in a command centre.

A handsome bearded man sporting a hipster-ish braid of hair that falls over the shaved sides of his head, Kamyshin is deliberately vague about many of the details.

But in the past year, his dedicated team has brought in world leaders, VIPs and diplomatic missions on an almost daily basis as part of a programme called “Iron Diplomacy”.

Security is everything, he told the Guardian in an interview at Kyiv’s main railway station. “We have not had one leak. There have been no photographs from train attendants. We respect the confidence of the delegations.

“It’s not a challenge. It’s our job that we do every day. Imagine,” he says with smile, “the president of the United States coming to a war-torn country by train.

Here’s a video that’s worth watching of Jill Biden describing her husband’s willingness to continue serving as president for a second term:

First lady Jill Biden has long been described as a key figure in US president Joe Biden’s orbit as he plans his future – after today revealing to the Associated Press that he’s close to confirming he’ll seek a second term in the White House.

Because I’m his wife,” she laughed, AP writes.

But she brushed off the question about whether she has the deciding vote on whether the president runs for reelection.

Of course he’ll listen to me, because we’re a married couple,” she said. But, she added later, “he makes up his own mind, believe me.”

Jill Biden participates in a women's empowerment reception, with Kenyan women leaders in government, business, research, and education, during the second leg of her African visit, at the Chief of Mission’s Residence, in Kenya today. Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters

Biden did the interview in Kenya, during the second leg of her trip to Africa this week. Earlier she was in Namibia.

Strongest sign yet that Biden will seek second term

First lady Jill Biden has given one of the clearest indications yet that Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview today that there’s “pretty much” nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement.

Although Biden has long said that it’s his intention to seek reelection, he has yet to make it official, and he’s struggled to dispel questions about whether he’s too old to continue serving as president. Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term.

“He says he’s not done,” the first lady said in Nairobi, the second and final stop of her five-day trip to Africa. “He’s not finished what he’s started. And that’s what’s important.”

She added: “How many times does he have to say it for you to believe it?”

Biden aides have said an announcement is likely to come in April, after the first fundraising quarter ends, which is around the time that Barack Obama officially launched his reelection campaign.

The day so far

Top US officials have restated their support for Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Speaking before the UN security council, secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that anything less than Russia’s full withdrawal from territory it seized will weaken the global body’s charter, while Joe Biden highlighted the bipartisan nature of Washington’s support for Kyiv. And indeed, many Republicans support Ukraine’s cause – but others in the party argue it is a distraction from more pressing issues. This divide could prove crucial to the outcome of the war in the months to come.

Here’s what else has happened today so far:

• Blinken warned China against getting involved in the conflict by providing Russia with weapons.

• The American public is divided over how long to support Kyiv, with more Republicans preferring limits on US aid, and more Democrats in favor of helping them fight against Russia until the job is done.

• The Treasury announced new sanctions against Russian individuals and companies involved in the war effort, but such measures haven’t proven as successful as Washington has hoped.

But the bipartisan comity over Ukraine has its limits.

There’s been a definite increase over the past year in the number of lawmakers who have questioned Washington’s support to Ukraine, particularly among Republicans.

Their argument is that Joe Biden cares more about Ukraine than various issues at home, especially those they’ve turned into cudgels against the administration such as border security, or the recent derailment of a train carrying toxic chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio.

This tweet from GOP senator Josh Hawley captures the dynamic well:

But it’s in the House where some of Ukraine’s biggest congressional foes can be found. “We can’t care more about Ukraine than we do our own country. President Biden has failed to lead on the train derailment, the border, inflation, crime, and so much more,” House Republican Jake LaTurner said in a statement released today.

“The White House continues to prioritize Ukraine while leaving American communities behind. It’s unacceptable.”

And while the Senate’s top Republican Mitch McConnell issued a statement of strong support for Ukraine today, his counterpart in the House, speaker Kevin McCarthy, has made no public statement that this blog is aware of.

Back in Washington, Mitt Romney was one of several Republican lawmakers who tweeted strong statements of support for Ukraine on the war’s one-year anniversary – which caught the eye of Democratic president Joe Biden.

Biden has been eager to play up the bipartisan nature of US support for Ukraine. Here’s what Romney, who represents Utah in the Senate and was the GOP’s nominee for president in 2012, had to say:

And here is Biden’s response:

While Antony Blinken spoke highly of Ukraine’s will to fight in his interview with ABC News, he declined to say whether he thought the war would still be raging this time next year.

Here’s more from his appearance:

A particular concern for the United States and Kyiv alike is the possibility that China could intervene in the conflict by providing Russia with weapons.

American officials have issued strong statements in recent days warning Beijing against getting involved. In an appearance on ABC News this morning, US secretary of state Antony Blinken summed up his message to China in three words: “don’t do it”.

“We’re very concerned that they’re thinking about it. Up until now, Chinese companies have provided non-lethal support,” Blinken said. “From day one, President Biden warned President Xi not to provide material lethal assistance to Russia for use against Ukraine or to engage in the systematic evasion of sanctions. And the information we have suggests that they’re now actively thinking about it, which is why we’ve been public about warning them not to.”

The United States’s warning about China’s potential involvement is the latest example of how it has tried to pre-empt Russia and its allies’ war strategy by releasing intelligence shortly after it is gathered.

“We always have to get the balance right between making sure that we’re protecting the way we get our information and releasing it,” Blinken told ABC. “But we thought it was really important to make clear that China’s looking at this. And what they’re hearing not just from us but from many other countries around the world is: Don’t do it.”

Speaking before the global body’s security council, Antony Blinken argued that the United Nations charter demands Russia withdraw from Ukraine and hand back the territory it seized.

“History teaches us that it’s the nature of peace that matters. For peace to be just, it must uphold the principles at the heart of the UN Charter: sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence. For peace to be durable, it must ensure that Russia can’t simply rest rearm and relaunched the war in a few months, or a few years. Any peace that legitimizes Russia’s seizure of land by force will weaken the charter and send a message to would-be the aggressors everywhere that they can invade countries and get away with it,” the US secretary of state said.

He specifically warned against normalizing the types of war crimes the United States accuses Russia of commiting in Ukraine.

“We can never let the crimes that Russia has committed become our new normal. Bucha is not normal. Mariupol is not normal. Irpin is not normal,” Blinken said, referring to cities where Russia is accused of deliberately killing large numbers of civilians. “Bombing schools and hospitals and apartment buildings to rubble is not normal. Stealing Ukrainian children from their families and giving them to people in Russia is not normal. We must not let President Putin’s callous indifference to human life become our own. We must force ourselves to remember that behind every atrocity in this wretched war, in conflicts around the world, is a human being.”

Secretary of state Blinken addresses UN security council

US secretary of state Antony Blinken is speaking before the UN security council on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Follow this blog for the latest updates from his address.

A new poll indicates Americans are growing split over how much longer to provide aid to Ukraine, with the divide occurring along familiar partisan lines.

The Fox News survey finds 50% of respondents argue Washington should support Ukraine for as long as it takes them to win against Russia, while 46% believe there should be some sort of time limit on the support.

Democrats are more in favor of sticking with Kyiv, with 66% percent backing support until victory over Russia is achieved. By a 61% margin, Republicans support the idea of a time limit. Independents are divided more closely, with 49% backing a time limit and 45% in favor of long-term support.

The top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell has put out a statement expressing strong continued support for Ukraine.

Though he’s one of Joe Biden’s chief antagonists in Congress, McConnell has generally approved of the administration’s strategy towards Kyiv, and reiterated that in his statement today. Here’s part of it:

As my fellow leading Republicans and I have explained, it is not an act of charity for the United States and our NATO allies to help supply the Ukrainian people’s self-defense. It is a direct investment in our own core national interests. America is a world power with worldwide interests. Our security and prosperity are deeply intertwined with a secure and stable Europe. If Putin were given a green light to destabilize Europe, invading and killing at will, the long-term cost to the United States in both dollars and security risks would be astronomically higher than the miniscule fraction of our GDP that we have invested in Ukraine’s defense thus far.

The United States hoped its aggressive sanctions regime would crush Russia’s economy and convince president Vladimir Putin to rethink his invasion of Ukraine.

It hasn’t quite turned out that way.

Bloomberg reports that Russia’s economy shrunk by 2.5% last year – far from the 10% drop expected when the US and its allies first announced the economic countermeasures. Meanwhile, Moscow’s central bank projects economic growth could resume this year.

That said, the country is on course to lose a lot of money, specifically $190bn in GDP by 2026 compared to the economy’s trajectory before the war.

New US penalties target Russian mining sector, sanctions evaders

The United States has announced a new battery of sanctions again Russia, targeting its mining sector and dozens of people and companies involved in helping it evade Washington’s trade restrictions, according to the Treasury department.

“As the Ukrainian people continue to valiantly defend their homeland and their freedom, the United States is proud to support Ukraine through economic, security, and humanitarian assistance,” Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said in announcing the penalties.

“Over the past year, we have taken actions with a historic coalition of international partners to degrade Russia’s military-industrial complex and reduce the revenues that it uses to fund its war. Our sanctions have had both short-term and long-term impact, seen acutely in Russia’s struggle to replenish its weapons and in its isolated economy. Our actions today with our G7 partners show that we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

The newly sanctioned individuals and companies include “firms that produce or import specialized, high-technology equipment used by Russian defense entities and companies that make advanced materials used in Russian weapons systems,” Treasury said.

Washington crucial to Ukraine war effort — but Kyiv argues for more

Sanctions, weapons and statements: while it hasn’t sent its own troops, the United States has made a robust effort to help Ukraine and penalize Russia ever since Moscow’s troops poured over its borders a year ago today.

The aid and intelligence approved by Joe Biden has proved crucial to Ukraine’s battlefield success, which has seen it not only fend off Russia’s initial attempt to storm the capital, but also retake ground lost in the war’s early days. On top of that have been public statements of support from Biden and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who have visited each other capitals even as the war raged.

But Ukraine has continued to ask for more sophisticated weapons it argues it needs to sustain the war effort – most recently advanced fighter jets. These negotiations form one of the few public points of tension between Kyiv and its western supporters, but could prove decisive in determining the war’s trajectory.

Ukraine war enters second year amid questions of continued US aid

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Today marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a grim milestone in a conflict that shows no sign of ending, and in which the United States has played a major role. Aid, particularly of weapons and ammunitions, from Washington and its European allies has proven vital to Kyiv’s defense against Russia’s assault, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy continues to push for more. He has an ally in Joe Biden, but while they have yet to decisively turn against assisting Ukraine, there are signs Republicans are growing wary of Kyiv’s cause. Expect to hear plenty about this dynamic today.

Here’s what else is happening:

• Biden and Zelenskiy will hold a virtual meeting with leaders of G7 countries at 9am eastern time to discuss efforts to aid Ukraine.

• Secretary of state Antony Blinken will speak before the UN security council at 10am about the war’s anniversary.

• Kamala Harris will hold a meeting on reproductive healthcare access at 11 am.