Extremist thought to be in Iran is de facto new leader of al-Qaida, UN says

A veteran Egyptian extremist thought to be based in Iran is now the de facto leader of al-Qaida, a UN report based on intelligence supplied by member states has said.

Saif al-Adel, 62, has long been tipped as the most likely to succeed Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was killed by a US airstrike in Kabul last year, but there has been no official announcement from the group nor other confirmation that the former Egyptian special forces soldier has taken charge.

The report from the UN security council’s committee monitoring sanctions on Islamic State and al-Qaida, published on Monday, said political sensitivities towards Iran and Taliban-run Afghanistan had prevented any formal acknowledgment by al-Qaida of Adel’s new role.

“Member states’ predominant view is that [Adel] is now the de facto leader of al-Qaida, representing continuity for now. But his leadership cannot be declared because of al-Qaida’s sensitivity to Afghan Taliban concerns not to acknowledge the death of … Zawahiri in Kabul and the fact of … [Adel’s] presence in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the report said.

The Taliban were embarrassed by the killing of Zawahiri after giving assurances to the US and others that they would not harbour individuals or groups who threatened the west or its allies from Afghan territory. “The presence of Zawahiri in central Kabul … demonstrated an ongoing and cooperative relationship between al-Qaida and the Taliban,” the report said.

One member state objected to the inclusion in the report of a reference to the presence of the new al-Qaida leader in Iran, the document says. This is believed to be Iran, which has long denied giving any support to al-Qaida, though it is now widely known that dozens of senior members of the group and their families sought safety in Iran after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 attacks of 2001.

The status of al-Qaida members in Iran has never been entirely clear, with their situations varying over the 20 years since their arrival. Some appear to have been held for long periods in various forms of detention; others were allowed significant freedoms. They include members of the family of Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaida, who was killed in Pakistan by US special forces in 2011.

In 2020, a senior leader of al-Qaida was shot dead on a street in Tehran, reportedly by Israeli operatives acting on a request from Washington.

The question of succession within al-Qaida is considered critical by intelligence services, with Bin Laden and Zawahiri having imposed different strategies on the group during their time at its head.

The organisation has struggled to remain relevant, with an increasingly elderly leadership failing to mobilise significant support among younger potential recruits.

The UN report said limited reporting on al-Qaida by member states made it difficult to come to firm conclusions about “the questions of succession and its impact on the threat posed” by the group.

“In discussions in November and December, many member states took the view that [Adel] is already operating as the de facto and uncontested leader of the group,” the report said.

Adel is seen by western officials as a formidable threat, with proven organisational ability and commitment that has won him wide respect within Islamist extremist circles. He started his extremist career with the Egyptian Islamic Jihad organisation in the 1980s, and was blamed for the 1998 attacks on US embassies in east Africa that launched al-Qaida’s international campaign of terrorism. The US Department of Justice is offering $10m for information leading to his arrest.

A key factor in al-Qaida’s silence over the succession was judged to be the continued presence of Adel in Iran, which the UN report said “raised difficult theological and operational questions” for the group.

Though al-Qaida has distanced itself from the virulent anti-Shia rhetoric of Isis, its ideology is still rooted in harsh sectarian strands of belief and practice. These dismiss Shia Muslims as heretics and enemies of the Sunni majority. Most Iranians are Shia.

For the group’s leader to be based in a potentially hostile country, or one where any ability to move, communicate or meet associates depends on decisions taken by local authorities, is unprecedented.

The UN report also described “attrition” to the IS leadership becoming “normalised” within the organisation after a series of its leaders were killed. “The function of leader has become almost totemic, a rallying point for the wider group,” it said.

The part of the world that is of most concern to member states is Africa, and in particular the Sahel region, where “terrorist groups exploit local disputes to recruit fighters and establish themselves in fragile communities”, the report said.