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Australia will seek to project military power further from its shores after a review warned the Australian defence force was structured for “a bygone era” and the security environment was “radically different”.
The defence strategic review, released on Monday, called for the ADF to develop the ability to precisely strike targets at longer range and develop a stronger network of bases, ports and barracks across northern Australia.
The public version of the final report did not label China a direct military threat to Australia, but said China’s assertion of sovereignty over the contested South China Sea “threatens the global rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific in a way that adversely impacts Australia’s national interests”. It labelled the competition between China and the United States “the defining feature of our region and our time”.
The Albanese government has also opened the door to potential changes to the number of Hunter class frigates and offshore patrol vessels to be purchased by Australia, with a snap review of the navy’s surface fleet needs to report back later this year.
The government also said it would consider options to increase stocks of guided weapons and explosive ordnance, including the rapid establishment of domestic manufacturing.
The defence strategic review, billed by the Albanese government as the most significant update of defence planning in nearly 40 years, was carried out by the former defence chief Angus Houston and the former Labor defence minister Stephen Smith.
The review called for a renewed focus on “how we manage and seek to avoid the highest level of strategic risk we now face as a nation: the prospect of major conflict in the region that directly threatens our national interest”.
Announcing its response to the review, the government declared that the ADF must be equipped to “hold an adversary at risk further from our shores”.
Five-point mission for the ADF
The government has outlined a five-point mission for the ADF to suit the current times. In addition to defending Australia and the immediate region, the ADF will be required to “deter through denial any adversary’s attempt to project power against Australia through our northern approaches”.
The more expansive tasks for the ADF are: to protect Australia’s economic connections to the world, contribute with partners to the collective security of the Indo-Pacific, and contribute with partners to maintain the global rules-based order.
In a new “national defence statement”, the government said these aims were grounded in the view that the defence of Australia “lies in the collective security of the Indo-Pacific”.
“As most of these objectives lie well beyond our borders, the ADF must have the capacity to engage in impactful projection across the full spectrum of proportionate response,” the deputy prime minister and defence minister, Richard Marles, said in the statement.
The government says it will prioritise developing the ADF’s ability to precisely strike targets at longer range and to manufacture munitions in Australia. The government said the ADF must also boost its capacity to “rapidly translate disruptive new technologies” into its own capabilities.
The government argues the decisions – together with the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under the Aukus agreement – will ensure Australia can project power in an “impactful” way across the Indo-Pacific region.
Smith and Houston’s full report remains classified but the government prepared a public version of the report.
China-US competition the ‘defining feature of our region’
This report said that in the late stages of the cold war, Australia faced no direct military threat.
“Australia’s strategic circumstances and the risks we face are now radically different,” the report said.
“No longer is our alliance partner, the United States, the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific. Intense China-United States competition is the defining feature of our region and our time. Major power competition in our region has the potential to threaten our interests, including the potential for conflict.”
The report said the nature of conflict and threats had also changed.
“China’s military build-up is now the largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of the second world war. This has occurred alongside significant economic development, benefiting many countries in the Indo-Pacific, including Australia. This build-up is occurring without transparency or reassurance to the Indo-Pacific region of China’s strategic intent.”
The report said in addition to developments in the South China Sea, China was also engaged in strategic competition in Australia’s near neighbourhood.
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“As a consequence, for the first time in 80 years, we must go back to fundamentals, to take a first-principles approach as to how we manage and seek to avoid the highest level of strategic risk we now face as a nation: the prospect of major conflict in the region that directly threatens our national interest.”
The report said there was currently “only a remote possibility of any power contemplating an invasion of our continent” but added “the threat of the use of military force or coercion against Australia does not require invasion”.
Decision on submarine base location deferred
The government will hold off making a decision on the location of a new east coast base for nuclear-powered submarines, after the Morrison government shortlisted Brisbane, Port Kembla and Newcastle. While the Morrison government had planned to make a decision during this term of parliament, the Albanese government said it would make a decision on a location for the facility “late in this decade”.
It is understood the reason for the delay is to focus, in the first instance, on upgrading HMAS Sterling in Western Australia for the rotational visits of US and UK submarines from 2027 in the first stage of the Aukus plan.
There had been speculation the government might cut back the number of Hunter class frigates or offshore patrol vessels it buys in order to acquire other types of vessels, such as corvettes.
The review stops short of recommending such action, but the government will order “an independent analysis of navy’s surface combatant fleet capability” later this year to ensure “its size, structure and composition complement the capabilities provided by the forthcoming conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines”.
The review also underlined the importance of diplomacy. It called for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to be given the resources it needs to “lead a whole-of-government statecraft effort in the Indo-Pacific”.
The review argued the primary area of military interest for Australia should be the immediate region covering the north-eastern Indian Ocean through south-east Asia into the Pacific - including Australia’s northern approaches.
The government agreed, but added that “in the contemporary strategic environment, developments in cyber, space and long-range precisions strike mean our defence interests are not bound by geography alone”.
The report also warns that climate change is increasing the demand on the ADF for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief talks at home and abroad.
The government will accelerate and expand numerous projects, including a land-based anti-ship missile system and new landing craft for the army.
But the government has slashed the army’s plan to acquire up to 450 infantry fighting vehicles, which had been expected to cost up to $27bn, as a replacement for Australia’s Vietnam war-era armoured personnel carriers.
The review recommended reducing this number to just 129 vehicles, enough for one mechanised battalion, in a move likely to cause consternation within the army.
Defence spending will rise overall but the government has argued it must make tough decisions to “reprioritise” programs in light of the budget environment.
The review has also identified $42bn in additional defence spending over 10 years that the former Coalition government had announced but not yet funded in the budget, adding to those pressures.
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