After all these years, PSG still do not understand how to succeed at the top

“Trust the process” has been a popular refrain on social media this season. Arsenal were patient with Mikel Arteta and are now being rewarded. At PSG, the hope was that the arrival of Luís Campos as sporting advisor and the “end of bling-bling” culture – as president Nasser Al-Khelaifi put it – would produce a dramatic shift in the club’s fortunes. But was their new process ever worth trusting?

PSG’s 1-0 home defeat to Lyon on Sunday night was their eighth in 2023, having been undefeated under Christophe Galtier in 2022. The “hangover” their three forwards experienced after an emotionally draining World Cup has accelerated a downturn that had been under way for some time.

Although an astute game-to-game strategist, Galtier is not tactically innovative enough to compete with the game’s leading managers. At his previous clubs – Nice, Lille and Saint-Étienne – he was adept at nullifying opponents but rarely at imposing his own ideas and outplaying rivals. Things are different at PSG. Galtier cannot wait for opponents to attack; he must build a side that is capable of picking apart the organised units he faces in Ligue 1, while also being able to outsmart equally talented teams in Europe.

Galtier’s plan amounts to little more than throwing a group of expensive forwards together and letting them figure it out for themselves. His 3-4-3 formation – which morphed into a 4-4-2 diamond before Neymar’s latest season-ending injury in February – resulted in a disconnect between his three forwards, who effectively had free roles, and the rest of the team, who were organised in a way that made up for that largesse.

Initially, with Neymar in unplayable form, their individual quality told. A strong Lille side were demolished 7-1 in August as PSG scored 17 goals in their first three games. The wins continued, but the team became increasingly unconvincing as coaches found ways of defending against such a one-dimensional side – much like Galtier would have done had he been up against his own team.

PSG’s six domestic defeats since Christmas tell a story. All have come against Ligue 1’s better sides – Lyon, Rennes (twice), Monaco, Marseille and Lens – and PSG have lost the xG battle in five of them, showing they are not unlucky or random. PSG can still overwhelm weaker opponents but any team with a semblance of quality can, and will, hurt them. Their only creditable performance since the World Cup was a 3-0 win at Marseille in February.

Do not expect to see Christophe Galtier managing PSG next season. Photograph: Aurélien Meunier/PSG/Getty Images

Although injuries and transfer market failings have not helped, Galtier has been rumbled and there seems to be nothing he can do about it. He has a workmanlike skillset and is unlikely to make it to next season. The real problem, however, is the misguided decision to appoint him, which was a product of the quasi-galácticos policy that has seen PSG tread water for much of the QSI reign.

The club’s hierarchy has not yet realised that spending the most money to sign the best players to simply have more firepower than everyone else is not a reliable means of success in modern football. PSG’s process fails to appreciate that high-level football matches are now won in more nuanced ways. Most elite clubs have two things that PSG do not appear to consider important. Firstly, a trusted and tactically innovative coach.

Unlike in the early 2000s, when Real Madrid enjoyed success with their galácticos – the spiritual godfathers of the current PSG team – top-level football is now a precise science informed by reams of data and widespread tactical innovation. To compete with Manchester City and the rest in 2023, PSG need to outthink and outmanoeuvre, rather than outmuscle or outspend. The former PSG coach Thomas Tuchel understood this, but tiresome internal politics, another failing, brought his reign to a premature end. The club has never truly trusted a coach with their project.

Secondly, PSG need absolute buy-in from their squad. Their three forwards want the club to succeed but, especially in the case of Kylian Mbappé and Neymar, it has to be on their terms – and the club have repeatedly signalled that this is acceptable. For example, Mbappé’s infamous #pivotgang Instagram post last year – in which he complained about his more facilitatory role in the team – seems to have directly influenced Galtier’s thinking, contributing to the team’s downturn. The presence of Messi, Neymar and Mbappé is not a problem in itself; their lack of commitment to the team ethic is.

Galtier’s appointment was born of these failings. With PSG prepared to offer Mbappé anything so he would sign a new contract last year, Campos’s name was reportedly mentioned by Mbappé as a possible sporting director. The club acquiesced. As shown by his role in Lille and Monaco’s recent title wins, Campos is a master at unearthing cheap talent and helping mid-size clubs overperform. Neither skill is of use to PSG.

Campos in turn appointed Galtier, seemingly because he had worked with him before, despite a multitude of more suitable candidates being available. To his credit, despite producing a thin squad and signing an out-of-his-depth coach, Campos has at least brought some common sense to transfers and tried to push the club’s prolific but underused academy.

The problem for PSG when compared to the resurgent Arsenal is that their process was barely worthy of trust from the start. Indeed, PSG fans often ask: “What process?” The appointment of Arteta made sense for the club’s reduced aims at that time, whereas Campos and Galtier feel out of place at the Parc des Princes and still owe their positions to the club’s characteristic “bling-bling” ideology.

PSG may yet achieve their aims and win the Champions League in this guise, but it is unlikely. Campos may yet remould the club but there is little evidence to suggest he can or will, and the French media suggest his position is also under threat. Trusting in a modern, holistic, tactically innovative approach is what PSG need to do – but finding a process that breeds such trust is proving their most difficult task.

Talking points

Arnaud Nordin scored for Montpellier as they held Marseille to a 1-1 draw. Photograph: Nicolas Tucat/AFP/Getty Images

PSG’s defeat to Lyon, their second in a row, has opened up the Ligue 1 title race once more, with the gap to second cut to six points. However, Marseille failed to take full advantage, drawing 1-1 at home to Montpellier, who are now undefeated in seven games since the return of coach Michel Der Zakarian. Their upturn in form has taken them clear of the relegation battle. At the top, Lens are again PSG’s closest rivals after their third win in a row, an impressive 1-0 victory at Rennes. The top two meet in two weeks.

The wide-open Coupe de France resumes this week at the semi-final stage. Holders and relegation battlers Nantes, having impressively ousted Lens in the last eight, face an erratic Lyon side, who, despite beating PSG this weekend, are still ninth in Ligue 1. Mid-table Toulouse, meanwhile, are up against Ligue 2 minnows Annecy, who stunned Marseille at the Vélodrome last month. Lyon are desperate to win their first trophy in more than a decade and are now favourites, despite this being their worst campaign for some time.